On the road to chaos

Even as President Mahinda Rajapakse started last week to kiss Indian posteriors in a bid to settle for the 13th Amendment as a final solution to the ethnic conflict, a gallon of petrol was to hit an all time high of Rs.571.50.
While the economic burdens become unbearable and the government continues to blame the rising cost of international fuel prices for the drastic price hike in fuel last Sunday the JVP that condemned previous regimes for raising prices by a much smaller amount due to international increases remains dumb struck. Ironically while a debt ridden toy project of Rajapakse’s, the loss making Mihin Lanka continues to burden the public of Sri Lanka owing a colossal amount of over Rs 420 million to the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, the CPC states it incurs a monthly loss of Rs. 3,089 million and has no option but to burden the general public by increasing kerosene, furnace oil, diesel and petrol further.
Wallowing
Rajapakse meanwhile is wallowing in a false sense of euphoria as the military pushes forward into the Wanni and news of a large number of war dead reaches the ears. Rajapakse has in this militarised high, like Pharaoh, hardened his heart. Despite the voice of common sense prevailing upon him he now feels there is no need for concessions or negotiations whatsoever.
Already he has made this clear to the All Party Representative Committee (APRC) which had toiled for 18 months to carve out a solution and a much publicised southern consensus in accordance with that supreme document – the Mahinda Chinthanaya.
Rajapakse for his part was happy to bring out a soiled copy of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution which provides for provincial councils and directed the APRC to rehash the document and present it to him on January 23 as their own final draft.
He rejected the APRC final draft stating he would lose the support of the JVP leading to the fall of the government making the entire exercise worthless.
Ironically Rajapakse as Executive President has all the powers to fully implement the provisions of the 13th Amendment which is now part of the constitution of the land but wants the APRC to forward it as a new mantra.
The irony of course is that he has to fall back on a package introduced by the UNP in 1987 as his great solution to the national crisis, a solution he opposed tooth and nail at the time, even taking to the streets in protest.
MR’s subterfuge
Mahindra Percy however was setting the stage to perpetrate the ultimate subterfuge on the public weal by first falsely planting stories in several newspapers the APRC had in its final draft called for a full implementation of the 13th Amendment.
Then in what can only be termed absurd and excessive, he started to build a monument to the IPKF near parliament and even invited Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Colombo on Independence Day, February 4, to inaugurate the structure. He insisted on lauding and applauding the 20 year old Indo Lanka Peace Accord of 1987 – a formula mind you of which he was a vociferous opponent.
Indeed he was one of the most vocal critics of the IPKF too having taken to the streets calling for their eviction.
To this end he was to give one of the most puerile and grossly infantile interviews ever given by a politician in the history of independent Sri Lanka. (See full interview on page 7.)
Speaking to the Indian Express Editor-in-Chief, Shekhar Gupta on NDTV 24x7’s Walk The Talk, he first invited India to mediate with the LTTE. And the man who stood with the late President Premadasa in his bid to flush out the IPKF 20 years ago now, roundly condemned Premadasa calling his move purely politically motivated.
India as mediator
‘Why not India (to mediate with LTTE)? I trust neighbours, if they are ready. I think they know LTTE’s mentality,’ Rajapakse stated. He also said he was the only politician ready to talk with the Tigers and said he did not want the Wanni to lay down arms and was ready to talk to them while fighting to the last.
That India itself was not enamoured of this new found fondness was evident as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has now declined the offer to officiate as an honoured guest at the Independence Day celebrations.
In fact Rajapakse or at least his brother Basil should know that the entire international community including India has been supporting Norway as the most suitable facilitator for the country. Indeed the Co-Chairs in their statement on the abrogation of the CFA has said this in no uncertain terms and India has completely washed its hands off being a mediator.
It is obvious given the history with the LTTE that India would not be suitable in the first place, unless Rajapakse intends to negotiate with a party other than the LTTE.
India washes its hands off
Interestingly enough giving an indication of India’s hands off policy on Sri Lanka, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee speaking with Karan Thapar on Devil’s Advocate on CNN-IBN on Sunday washed his hands off the abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement but insisted there was no military solution to the conflict.
Earlier when asked by Thapar if it wasn’t a bit rude and discourteous to Sri Lanka not to make up India’s mind on whether it would accept the invitation or not, Mukherjee curtly replied, ‘No, because we require time. As and when it is decided we will let you know, but no decision has been taken.’
Mukherjee also reiterated that India has zero tolerance for terrorism but it is important to note he said a country must take action within their legal system. He also circumvented any value judgment on the abrogation by stating India was not a party to it and had scrupulously avoided any attempts to drag them into the equation.
The Minister warned however that the legitimate aspirations of the ethnic minorities including Tamils had to be fulfilled when finding a solution.
Japan as facilitator
But if India was refusing to get involved, not so the Co-Chairs – especially Japan. With a possible end to the Norwegian role near, Japan was ready to take on the mantle of neutral facilitator. A role Japan, looking to upgrade its international profile has been keen to play in the region for a long time.
So far Japan which has often refused to take a stand on gross human rights violations by government forces has been seen as a pro establishment player and has failed in its attempts to be perceived as neutral.
Japan provides nearly two-thirds of all international aid to Sri Lanka but had declined to link financial aid to a rapidly deteriorating human rights situation despite growing international concern over the country’s rights record.
But this position had undergone an apparent change with Akashi telling the media Tuesday at a press conference that Japan will take a decision on its aid commitments based on the situation in Sri Lanka including human rights and the political solution the government would forward.
Akashi rejected by LTTE
In fact Special Envoy Yasushi Akashi has been refused a meeting with LTTE supremo 13 times due to the deep distrust the Wanni had cultivated over a period towards the Japanese’ role in the peace process due to the country’s perceived stance of being partial to the government as a Co-Chair member.
In an attempt to salvage its neutrality Akashi Monday on a three day visit to Sri Lanka met with both Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama and President Mahinda Rajapakse expressing concern over the abrogation of the Ceasefire Agreement, even as the international community stepped up pressure on the Rajapakse government to reconsider its decision. It is following these meetings that he set out Japan’s position at the media conference.
Akashi meets Ranil
In fact Monday night at a dinner meeting with UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, MP Ravi Karunanayake and Bradman Weerakoon too the Japanese envoy was to express serious concern at the trajectory of the political process and the deteriorating human rights situation and said Japan cannot act in isolation when the international community is calling for action on the human rights and political fronts.
Thus in sharp contrast to its previous stand Japan this time indicated it could withhold aid to Sri Lanka if the violence keeps escalating.
Akashi did not visit the war torn Wanni but met with the JVP on Sunday and the Marxists sensing the shifting policy of Akashi was to also go on the offensive in what was a counter productive exercise for the government considering the JVP was a close ally of Rajapakse.
JVP insults Japan
Critical of Japan, the JVP told media "While Japan and other international donors give a lot of aid to Sri Lanka, Mr. Akashi indicated donors may call off aid, given the current ground situation," the JVP said after the talks. And in a state of pique the JVP also drew parallels with Japan’s World War II kamikaze pilots to LTTE’s suicide bombers. These statements Akashi was to consider downright insulting as it later surfaced when they privately conferred at the Embassy.
Meanwhile rights groups warn that the departure of the Norwegian-led Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission and the official end to the CFA today would lead to an upsurge in violence.
The government continues to press forward in the north in its promise to wipe out 3000 Tamil Tigers by August. On that score too conflicting reports emerged with the security forces claiming a large number of Tigers were killed but with the LTTE stating 30 soldiers were killed and scores injured.
And with the government set to launch an all out offensive in the days to come the humanitarian crisis is bound to escalate with civilians compelled to move out to safer territory by the thousands and that is what India fears most.
India’s concerns
Such a move India believes will make it extremely difficult for them to stay neutral given the outcry that is bound to follow from South India and with the SLMM also out of the way, pressure will mount to accede to a UN mission.
This aspect the Co-Chairs have also hinted at in their statement as has other rights groups and in the absence of a viable political package as well, there is little the government will be able to draw from the international community by way of support in such a scenario.
US based Human Rights Watch Deputy Asia Director Elaine Pearson in fact warned earlier this month that the monitors helped to minimise abuses against civilians even as Sri Lanka’s largest aid givers including the Co-Chairs, the United States, the European Union and Norway, have sought access to meet with the LTTE and are pushing the Rajapakse regime to allow the United Nations to monitor human rights.
A call the Rajapakse regime in a JVP stranglehold has completely rejected.
More devastating was UN Human Rights Commissioner Louise Arbour’s statement yesterday warning even international criminal action against human rights violators including against those in command. That is the strongest statement yet to come out of the UN which paints the government into a corner as it prepares for all out war against the LTTE having disposed of the CFA.
http://www.themorningleader.lk/20080116/politics.html